Home > Our research topics > NAWDEX (North Atlantic Wave Guide Experiment) > Estimation of the sensitivity of 2PVU theta to Z700 using Ensemble Sensitivity Analysis
Update of the webpage at 0435UTC
The following plots show the sensitivity of Potential temperature of the 2PVU surface at tf (06UTC D+2) to Z700 at Ti (06 UTC D+1, 12UTC D+1, 18UTC D+1, 00UTC D+2)
The computations are based on a a lagged ensemble of 4 consecutive ensembles PEARP (Descamps et al., 2015). The ensemble size is 4x35=140.
ENSEMBLE MEAN (Z 700 hPa) AT Ti
| 06 UTC D+1 | 12UTC D+1 | 18UTC D+1 | 00UTC D+2 |
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DEFINITION OF J AT Tf
| vector of weights used to compute J | projected onto the ensemble | ENSEMBLE MEAN (theta 2PVU) |
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LINEAR SENSITIVITY (Hakim & Torn, 2008)
| Ti | 06 UTC D+1 | 12UTC D+1 | 18UTC D+1 | 00UTC D+2 |
| covariance between J and Z700 at Ti |
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| Ti | 06 UTC D+1 | 12UTC D+1 | 18UTC D+1 | 00UTC D+2 |
| linear sensitivity dJ/dX(Ti) |
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CLUSTERING
mean at Ti of the 15 members with larger J
| 06 UTC D+1 | 12UTC D+1 | 18UTC D+1 | 00UTC D+2 |
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mean at Ti of the 15 members with smaller J
| 06 UTC D+1 | 12UTC D+1 | 18UTC D+1 | 00UTC D+2 |
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